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春節因素推動運價續漲 可持續性有限

電廠(chang)煤炭庫(ku)存大幅(fu)下挫，煤炭運價繼續(xu)(xu)小幅(fu)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)，大船依舊是上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)主力(li)，但此(ci)番上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)可持續(xu)(xu)性有限(xian)。1月10日，海運煤皆思壑甘齇(zha)CFI報收(shou)833.10點(dian)，期(qi)環(huan)比(bi)上(shang)行(xing)0.80%。分子指數來看，華東(dong)線(xian)指數報收(shou)884.14點(dian)，期(qi)環(huan)比(bi)上(shang)行(xing)0.72%；華南線(xian)指數報收(shou)662.25點(dian)，期(qi)環(huan)比(bi)上(shang)行(xing)1.17%。

具體到航(hang)線(xian)，華(hua)南方(fang)向，秦(qin)皇(huang)島至(zhi)(zhi)廣州航(hang)線(xian)5-6萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)船(chuan)(chuan)舶平(ping)均(jun)運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)34.9元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，期(qi)(qi)環(huan)比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)行(xing)0.4元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。華(hua)東方(fang)向，秦(qin)皇(huang)島至(zhi)(zhi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)海(hai)航(hang)線(xian)2-3萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)船(chuan)(chuan)舶的煤(mei)炭平(ping)均(jun)運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)32.0元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，期(qi)(qi)環(huan)比下行(xing)0.2元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；秦(qin)皇(huang)島至(zhi)(zhi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)海(hai)航(hang)線(xian)4-5萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)船(chuan)(chuan)舶的平(ping)均(jun)運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)26.8元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，期(qi)(qi)環(huan)比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)行(xing)1.2元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；秦(qin)皇(huang)島至(zhi)(zhi)寧波(bo)航(hang)線(xian)1.5-2萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)船(chuan)(chuan)舶平(ping)均(jun)運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)37.8元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，期(qi)(qi)環(huan)比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)行(xing)0.4元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。進江方(fang)向，秦(qin)皇(huang)島至(zhi)(zhi)張(zhang)家港航(hang)線(xian)2-3萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)船(chuan)(chuan)舶平(ping)均(jun)運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)35.7元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，期(qi)(qi)環(huan)比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)行(xing)0.1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；秦(qin)皇(huang)島至(zhi)(zhi)南京航(hang)線(xian)2-3萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)船(chuan)(chuan)舶平(ping)均(jun)運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)40.8元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，期(qi)(qi)環(huan)比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)行(xing)0.7元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。   　　指(zhi)數運(yun)行(xing)：（1）本報(bao)告期(qi)(qi)，海(hai)運(yun)煤(mei)炭運(yun)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)數OCFI連續第三(san)期(qi)(qi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)行(xing)，期(qi)(qi)環(huan)比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)行(xing)6.61點(dian)(dian)，累計上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)行(xing)20.75點(dian)(dian)；（2）本報(bao)告期(qi)(qi)，六大代表(biao)航(hang)線(xian)船(chuan)(chuan)型(xing)平(ping)均(jun)運(yun)價(jia)(jia)基本維持穩中上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲的趨勢。 

    分析認為，電廠(chang)春節(jie)前(qian)的(de)補(bu)b需求依舊是推(tui)動大(da)船(chuan)運價(jia)(jia)上(shang)漲(zhang)的(de)主要原因(yin)(yin)。受寒潮天(tian)(tian)氣影(ying)響，沿海主要電廠(chang)日耗近期(qi)(qi)均運行于(yu)70萬噸(dun)左右的(de)高位，因(yin)(yin)補(bu)庫進程緩(huan)慢，存(cun)煤(mei)已下挫至1010萬噸(dun)左右，存(cun)煤(mei)可用天(tian)(tian)數跌破(po)15天(tian)(tian)，因(yin)(yin)此電廠(chang)意欲搶訂中旬之前(qian)的(de)適期(qi)(qi)大(da)船(chuan)，以(yi)便在春節(jie)前(qian)完(wan)成備貨(huo)。近日大(da)船(chuan)價(jia)(jia)格繼續(xu)(xu)小幅上(shang)漲(zhang)，帶動小b運價(jia)(jia)穩中略(lve)升。未來幾天(tian)(tian)，前(qian)期(qi)(qi)采購煤(mei)炭將陸續(xu)(xu)到岸，運價(jia)(jia)回暖的(de)可持(chi)續(xu)(xu)性有(you)限(xian)，中旬后運價(jia)(jia)或(huo)將出現明顯回落。（田(tian)婭(ya)娟）